Monday, February 27, 2017

Are the Oscars and Critical Consensus Converging?


With last night's surprising upset of Moonlight over La La Land for Best Picture, I was thinking about how unusual it was for an independent critical darling to win the Oscar and if this has been changing over the past couple decades. Are Best Picture winners getting better, or, at least, more critically respectable? One way to examine this would be to compare the Academy Awards with a critical consensus website like Metacritic, which aggregrates critic scores to produce a number out of 100. Below are the results, with the number next to the Oscar winner indicating its Metacritic ranking for the year (if not #1) as well as the Oscar winner if Metacritic chose from the nominees (if different than actual winner) and the Metacritic # 1 of the year (again, if different).

Year    Oscar Winner                          Metacritic Winner                   Metacritic #1

2016    Moonlight
2015    Spotlight (4)                                                                            Carol
2014    Birdman (16)                           Boyhood
2013    12 Years a Slave
2012    Argo (11)                                Zero Dark Thirty
2011    The Artist (6)                                                                          A Separation
2010    The King’s Speech (8)            The Social Network
2009    The Hurt Locker        
2008    Slumdog Millionaire (6)                                                          4 Months, 3 Weeks and 2 Days
2007    No Country for Old Men (5)   There Will Be Blood              Ratatouille
2006    The Departed (13)                   The Queen                              Pan’s Labyrinth
2005    Crash (129)                             Capote                                     The Best of Youth
2004    Million Dollar Baby (9)          Sideways
2003    The Lord of the Rings 3         
2002    Chicago (23)                           The Lord of the Rings 2          Spirited Away
2001    A Beautiful Mind (80)            The Lord of the Rings 1
2000    Gladiator (122)                       Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon
1999    American Beauty (8)                                                              Topsy-Turvy
1998    Shakespeare in Love (3)         Saving Private Ryan  
1997    Titanic (21)                             L.A. Confidential                    Maborosi
1996    The English Patient (3)           Secrets and Lies
1995    Braveheart (30)                       Sense and Sensibility              Toy Story 

Another alternative would be to use the Rotten Tomatoes aggregrate, which uses an Adjusted Score based on number of reviews (as well as a binary fresh/rotten grade). Here would be the results: 

Year    Oscar Winner                          RT Winner                              RT #1

2016    Moonlight
2015    Spotlight (3)                            Mad Max Fury Road                                                            
2014    Birdman (15)                           Boyhood                                                        
2013    12 Years a Slave (2)                Gravity
2012    Argo  
2011    The Artist (2)                                                                         Harry Potter 7 (Part2)            
2010    The King’s Speech (5)            Toy Story 3                
2009    The Hurt Locker (2)                Up      
2008    Slumdog Millionaire (8)         Milk                                        The Wrestler
2007    No Country for Old Men (3)                                                  Ratatouille
2006    The Departed  (6)                    The Queen                              Casino Royale
2005    Crash (101)                             good night, and good luck      Murderball
2004    Million Dollar Baby (15)        Sideways                                 The Incredibles                      
2003    The Lord of the Rings 3 (2)                                                    Finding Nemo
2002    Chicago (27)                           The Lord of the Rings 2                     
2001    A Beautiful Mind (71)            The Lord of the Rings 1          Monsters Inc
2000    Gladiator (47)                         Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon     Chicken Run
1999    American Beauty (11)            The Insider                              Toy Story 2
1998    Shakespeare in Love (3)                                                         The Truman Show
1997    Titanic (4)                               L.A. Confidential
1996    The English Patient (22)         Fargo                                      When We Were Kings
1995    Braveheart (30)                       Babe                                       Toy Story



Looking at the two charts, there does appear to be a slight trend towards critical favorites. There hasn't been a Best Picture winner not in the Top 20 of either the Metacritic or Rotten Tomatoes list since 2005, when the now notorious Crash upset Brokeback Mountain (although interestingly Capote and good night, and good luck were the more acclaimed films). The most "controversial" winner since 2005 was Birdman from 2014, and even that film was critically respected if not adored. The consensus has turned against The Artist from 2011, but it was no. 6 and no.2 on Metacritic and Rotten Tomatoes respectively and was higher ranked than any of its fellow nominees. 



The clear down period is 2000-2002, with Gladiator (122 and 47), A Beautiful Mind (80 and 71), and Chicago (22 and 27) all much less respected by critics than the Academy. These are also the type of films, perhaps, that are becoming harder to make in the streaming, blockbuster franchise world, and need critical consensus if they are to thrive. Chicago and La La Land are an instructive comparison here, with director Damien Chazelle's indie cred and art cinema influences giving his film the critical respect needed to compete in today's Oscar race. Initial lukewarm reviews similar to those of Chicago, one guesses, would have sunk its chances. And even with its box office success and high critical notices (5 and 4), it still lost, to the type of small, seemingly niche film that would have only been considered a contender at the Independent Spirit Awards a decade ago. 

What is also intriguing is that movies that now have less critical respect, such as American Beauty, Shakespeare in Love, and The English Patient from the late 90s, were critical as well as Academy favorites at the time. Thus, the convergence of Oscars and critics is not to be exaggerated. They have always been closer than perhaps we collectively imagine or remember. But as movies recede in cultural influence and Hollywood can no longer pretend in the franchise age that its box office monster hits have middlebrow critical cred, we may see the critical favorites achieve more success. In other words, it seems less likely we will have another Crash again. And if nothing else, that's a positive. 




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